![]() ![]() Electricity costs more than natural gas per unit energy, and less energy is required to convert natural gas to hydrogen than to split water, as natural gas consists of high-energy molecules (primarily methane), while water is a low-energy molecule. In the HD+E scenario, the hydrogen supply sector sees much higher energy expenditures than in the HD scenario (Fig 3, red line), because it is more expensive to purchase electricity for electrolysis than to purchase natural gas for steam reforming. Change in hydrogen supplier cash flow in the HD scenario. Some industrial facilities may generate their hydrogen on-site, and it is possible to transform hydrogen into other high-energy molecules that are compatible with existing energy infrastructure (such as ammonia or methane) with modest energy losses, both approaches that could minimize the need for new distribution infrastructure.įig 2. They do not include the costs of building or maintaining hydrogen distribution infrastructure, such as new pipelines, tanker trucks, or storage tanks. Note that non-energy expenditures (the blue lines in Figures 2 and 3) include capital equipment to produce hydrogen, as well as operations and maintenance costs for that equipment. Energy expenditures remain low, due to the low cost of natural gas and relatively high efficiency of transforming natural gas into hydrogen. Hydrogen sector revenues and profits rise rapidly through the early 2030s, with revenue growth slowing only slightly due to technology-driven declines in the cost of hydrogen production (and, hence, retail prices). hydrogen supply becomes a $130 billion per year industry by 2050 (Fig 2). Change in GHG Emissions Relative to BAU for the HD and HD+E cases. By 2050, the HD case reduces GHG emissions by 20 Mt of CO 2e per year, while the HD+E case reduces GHG emissions by over 120 Mt CO 2e per year in 2050 – comparable to removing 25 million passenger vehicles from U.S. In reality, many non-hydrogen technologies (such as vehicle and industry electrification, increased energy and material efficiency, etc.) will also play important roles in reducing emissions.īoth the HD and HD+E scenarios reduce total GHG emissions relative to the BAU case (Fig 1). The HD and HD+E scenarios illustrate the potential impacts of large-scale hydrogen deployment and are not meant to realistically predict future decarbonization pathways. A hydrogen demand plus electrolysis (HD+E) case includes growth in hydrogen demand in the transportation and industry sectors identical to the HD case, and hydrogen production gradually transitions to 100% electrolysis by 2050.However, hydrogen production remains dominated by reforming natural gas (95% natural gas, 5% electrolysis). Also, industry shifts 10% of its non-feedstock fossil energy use to hydrogen by 2050. A hydrogen demand (HD) case gradually increases the share of newly-sold, hydrogen-powered on-road vehicles to 5% (cars and light trucks) or 10% (buses, medium trucks, and heavy trucks) by 2050.hydrogen production remains dominated by fossil fuels (where 95% comes from natural gas and 5% from electrolysis). Hydrogen is not used in industry except as a feedstock. A business-as-usual case (BAU) shows modest growth in hydrogen vehicles, in line with predictions from the U.S.Three scenarios highlight some of the most interesting results: EPS, a free and open-source computer model that estimates the impacts of energy technologies and policies, allows users to explore the future of hydrogen in the U.S. Possible Hydrogen PathwaysĪ new release of the U.S. The 98% of hydrogen production from fossil fuels emits 830 Mt of CO 2 per year, equivalent to the annual emissions from the energy used by 100 million U.S. ![]() Of the 70 Mt of hydrogen produced each year worldwide today, 76% comes from reforming natural gas, 22% from coal gasification, and 2% from electrolysis, in which electricity is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen with zero emissions. The extent to which hydrogen prevents GHG emissions depends on how that hydrogen is made. Hydrogen combustion offers a route by which industries can obtain high heat without direct GHG emissions. ![]() In many high-heat processes, it is difficult or costly to replace fossil fuels with electricity with today’s technology. Many industrial processes require high temperatures, including firing of kilns for cement, ceramics, or glass forging steel and heating boilers to produce steam. Today, hydrogen is commonly used as a chemical feedstock, but there is potential for it to also be burned for heat. Yet, hydrogen’s greatest potential may be in the industrial sector, which uses the overwhelming majority of today’s hydrogen, particularly in oil refining and in ammonia, methanol, and steel production. ![]()
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